对中东石油发展前景的预测

Prospects for Middle Eastern oil

在当前高油价下,石油产量"顶峰论"、"石油枯竭论"再度盛行,引发人们对世界石油前景的深思和对石油发展战略方向的讨论。尽管有人对作为世界主要石油生产和出口区的中东的石油前景作出了悲观论断,然而有一个事实不能忽略:新技术和新工艺的采用不仅可以减缓油田产量的下降,还可以使已进入"壮年期"的油田得以长期稳产甚至增产。基于对中东不同类型产油国油气开发阶段的客观分析和根据相关参数所作的产量预测,可以得出结论:中东的石油前景不是"黄昏的落日",中东的石油产量远未达到"顶峰"。由于中东产油国长期执行"限产保价"政策以及部分国家战火连绵,中东的很多地区勘探程度不够。加大投资力度、提高技术水平、使石油政策向有利于石油开发的方向调整等是中东石油生产获得进一步发展的关键因素。

With oil prices soaring and with'Peak Oil'and 'oil depletion theory'gaining renewed popularity,people are pondering the prospects for worldwide oil and discussing the strategic direction it will follow.Some take a pessimistic view of oil's prospects in the Middle East,the world's major producer and exporter of oil.However,there is one fact which cannot be ignored:new technologies and new processes can ease the decline in oil production.For oil fields already in their'mature stage,'they may enable stable long-term production and even increase production.Based on an objective analysis of oil and gas development phases in a variety of Middle Eastern oil-producing nations,along with output estimates according to the relevant parameters,it can be concluded that the sun is not setting on Middle Eastern oil,and that oil output in the region has by no means 'peaked.'A long-term policy among oil-producing nations of'limiting production and protecting prices,' combined with ongoing wars in several nations,means that prospecting has been insufficient throughout much of the region.Expanding investment,improving technology,and turning oil policy in a more development-friendly direction will be the key factors for further developing oil production in the Middle East.