人民币升值对两岸经贸关系影响的实证研究

An empirical study on impact of RMB appreciation on economic relationship across the Taiwan straits

本文利用1999年7月至2008年4月的月度数据，运用协整检验以及基于VECM的Granger因果检验等计量方法，封人民币升值封两岸经贸关系的影响进行探讨。结果表明，人民币汇率与两岸经贸关系的三个核心指标都存在长期稳定的均衡关系。从长期来看，两岸经贸关系的三个核心指标都是人民币名义汇率的单向Granger原因；而从短期来看，不存在Granger因果关系。至于人民币升值封大陆封台出口、大陆自台进口以及台商对大陆投资的影响，无论是长期还是短期，都不明显。简言之，人民币升值封两岸经贸发展的负面影响不明显，而且从长远来看，两岸经贸关系的发展将有利于人民币汇率的稳定。

This paper uses the approach of Co-integration test and Granger test based on VECM to explore the impact of the RMB appreciation on economic relationship across the Taiwan straits with the monthly data from July 1999 to April 2008. The results reveal that the RMB nominal exchange rate has a long-run co-integration with imports from Taiwan to China's Mainland, exports from China's Mainland to Taiwan, Taiwan indirect investment to China's Mainland respectively. In the long run, imports from Taiwan to China's Mainland, exports from China's Mainland to Taiwan and Taiwan indirect investment to China's Mainland all are unidirectional Granger causality of the RMB nominal exchange rate. And in the short run, among them it does not exist Granger causality. As for the impact of the RMB appreciation on imports from Taiwan to China's Mainland, exports from China's Mainland to Taiwan and Taiwan indirect investment to China's Mainland, regardless of being long-term or the short-term, is not obvious. In short, the appreciation of the RMB on cross-strait economic relationship development of the negative impact was not obvious. In the long run, the development of cross-strait economic relationship will be advantageous to the stability of the RMB exchange rate.