摘要
本文在阐述模糊概率和截集λ的概念的基础上,将模糊信息引入确定地下水可开采量的风险分析中,建立了模糊-随机风险估算模型。通过对模型中的参数进行模糊化处理,用改进一次二阶矩法计算了地下水过量开采的模糊风险率。应用实例表明:对应于不同的截集λ,得出的模糊风险率均为一个过渡区间,较经典概率统计中确定的系统"安全"或"不安全"之间的截然划分更符合工程实际情况,也为决策者提供了更多的风险信息;另外,因模型中同时考虑了地下水系统中客观存在的随机性与模糊性,在一定程度上提高了评价结果的可靠度,减小了地下水水源地开采的风险。
Based on the concepts of fuzzy probability and cut set of fuzzy number, the fuzzy information is introduced into the risk analysis on groundwater allowable withdrawal to establish a fuzzy-stochastic risk evaluation model. The parameters of the model are fuzzily processed and the fuzzy risk can be evaluated by using the modified first order second moment method. The application example shows that other than the result of traditional statistics method the fuzzy risks for different cut sets obtained from the proposed method fall in a transitional range, which is consistent with the actual situation. The analysis provides more information for decision-maker. Besides, owing to the consideration of both the randomness and fuzziness of groundwater system, the reliability of the evaluation result is improved and the risk for excess exploration of groundwater is reduced.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第9期1141-1145,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CX07B-131z)
河海大学院士基金
