发展中国家间的民主进步能促进其双边贸易吗——基于引力模型的一个实证研究

Can Democratization Foster Bilateral Trade for Developing Countries?A Gravity Investigation

对发展中国家来说，贸易两国的民主进步对其贸易具有各种影响。以前的研究建议一个发展中进口国的本国民主进步会减少各类贸易壁垒，进而增加其进口量。与此同时，该国也会更偏向于从民主化程度较高的其他国家进口产品，一个可能的原因是因为民主度较高的发展中国家其出口品具有较高的质量而在国际贸易中备受欢迎。本文首先介绍了一个含有民主指标的国际贸易引力理论模型，然后在控制民主度的内生性基础上，使用跨国多年面板数据进行计量回归分析。实证研究表明发展中贸易两国的民主进步会显著地促进其贸易水平。一般地，在其他因素不变的情况下，两国民主进步对其贸易增长有约6％-13％的贡献率。

Democracy has various effects on the trade volumes of developing countries. Previous works suggest that an importer＇s democratization could reduce trade barriers and hence increase its imports. Simultaneously, a democratic country could become a favorable exporter possibly due to more reliable quality of products fostered by its better institutions. In this paper I estimate a revised gravity equation with democracy. Using a rich panel data and clearly controlling for the endogeneity issue of democratization, various empirical evidence confirms that the democratization could foster bilateral trade for developing countries. Particularly, democratization of trading partners contributes about 6%-13% to bilateral trade growth.