汽车再生资源利用系统建模分析

Analysis on Modeling of Utilization System of Automobile Renewable Resources

通过对汽车产品生产、销售、使用、报废、回收及再利用过程的全寿命周期的资源利用过程分析,确立了汽车再生资源利用系统各变量之间的因果关系;利用系统动态学方法建立了汽车再生资源利用系统流图,并构建了汽车再生资源利用系统数学模型;以此模型为基础对我国汽车报废量进行了预测;通过仿真对影响汽车再生资源总量变化的因素进行了分析,从而为汽车再生资源的合理利用及相关政策制定提供了可借鉴的理论方法。

This paper analyses the process of the utilizing resources by means of product lifecycle assessment, includes the producing, saling, using, discarding, recovering and recycling of automobiles. We first establishe the causal relationship between the variables of utilization system of automobile renewable resources. By combining system dynamics, we than draw a flow chart of utilization system of automobile renewable resources and establishes a Mathematical Model for the system, which can predict the discarding quantity of automobiles. Finally, the factors influencing the change of total quantity of the automobile renewable resources are alalyzed by emulation method, so as to provide reference for the wise use of automobile renewable resources and related policy making.