经济增长与节能降耗双目标实现的艰巨性——基于投入产出优化模型的结构式测算

Difficulty in Achieving the Dual Objectives of Rapid Economic Growth and Energy Saving——A Structural Calculation Based on Input-output Optimal Model

以项目组和国家统计局合作编制的可比价序列表为基础,利用结构分解方法,对能耗中技术因素、结构因素在不同阶段的不同贡献,特别是对当前结构节能的主导作用进行了分析,并进一步构建着眼于持续快速增长与节能降耗双目标的投入产出优化模型,以此对当前双目标实现的艰巨性以及产业结构的演进方向进行了结构化测算。

The unsustainable fact of traditional extensive growth model has become a consensus gradually, thus saving energy has become a hot issue for researching and governmental policy- making. In this paper, comparable price input- output table compiled by research team and the National Bureau of Statistics of China lay the foundation of research. The authors demostrate the different contributions in various stages of technical factors and structural factors of energy consumption by using Structure Decomposition Analysis, as well as revealed dominant role of structure energy saving currently, and further build an input - output optimal model that focused on the dual objectives of rapid economic growth and energy saving.