货币总量指数的选择——基于货币需求稳定性的检验

The Choice among Monetary Aggregates——Evidence from Stability Tests of Money Demand

基于不同货币总量的统计方法编制了我国季度Divisia货币总量指数和现金等价货币总量,并与现行的简单加总货币总量进行了实证比较。研究发现,广义简单加总货币总量不适宜作为我国货币政策的中介目标,广义Divisia货币指数和现金等价货币总量对经济中其他变量的解释力明显强于狭义货币总量指数。

Due to the different methods for money aggregates statistics, this paper compiles the Divisia aggregate and currency equivalence aggregate as quarter data, and with the officially published simple- summed monetary aggregate, the author does the tests for their performance. As a result, the simple- summed M2 is not feasible as the intermediate target for monetary policy; meanwhile the broad Divisia aggregate and currency equivalence aggregate outperform the all kinds of narrow monetary aggregates for explanations to other variables in the economy.