1961年～2004年东北地区四季降水的时空演变特征

Spatio-Temporal Trends in Seasonal Precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961 to 2004

利用Anusplin插值软件对东北地区146站1961年～2004年四季降水量进行空间化处理，各季区域平均MRE分别为春季14．3％、夏季14．1％；秋季18．1％；冬季25．1％。对栅格数据采用空间分析和时间序列分析相结合的方法进行四季降水时空演变特征分析，结果表明：从时间上看，春季，整个时段呈弱增多趋势，但不显著，1980年代前增加，之后减少；夏季呈减少趋势，1985以后呈显著减少趋势；秋季整个时段呈弱的减少趋势，1990年代开始显著减少，2000年以后略有增加；冬季年代际变化特征明显，呈波动增多趋势，近10年增幅较大。从空间分布上看，春季，黑龙江北部和东部部分地区、吉林东部降水显著增多，增幅为（3～9）mm／10年，辽宁中部部分地区降水显著减少，减幅为（3～7）mm／10年。夏季，东北大部地区降水以减少为主，黑龙江中部和辽东半岛地区显著减少，减幅为（20～40）mm／10年。秋季，东北大部地区降水减少，黑龙江东部局部、吉林中部和南部部分地区显著减少，减幅为（6-10）mm／10年。冬季，黑龙江大部、吉林大部降水显著增多，增幅为（1～3）mm／10年，辽宁南部和西部部分地区显著减少，减幅为（1～2）mm／10年。

Seasonal precipitation data interpolated using Anusplin software from 1961 to 2004 with data from 146 weather stations in northeastern China were transformed to annual grid data using a GIS platform. Data from 26 weather stations were reserved in order to test the accuracy of the interpolation. The mean relative error for the four seasons was 14.3%, 14.1%, 18.1% and 25.1%. Then, spatio-temporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation in northeast China over the same period were evaluated with spatial analysis and time series analysis. The results showed that for temporal trends, the regional average seasonal gross precipitation （RASGP） in spring indicated a slight increase over the study period, with a clear increase before the 1980s and decrease after then. In summer, the RASGP decreased, especially after 1985. There was a slight decrease of RASGP in autumn, especially evident in the 1990s but recovering after 2000. The RASGP exhibited traits of inter-decadal change, and a slight increasing trend in winter with large variation over the last decade. For spatial distribution of seasonal gross precipitation from 1961 to 2004, in spring, northern and part of eastern Heilongjiang province as well as eastern Jilin province were the main regions where trends of increased precipitation were significant, ranging from 3mm/10a to 9 mm/10a. Areas where precipitation obviously decreased, with a range from 3mm/10a to 7 mm/10a, were mainly located in parts of central Liaoning province. In summer, precipitation decreased in the great majority of northeastern china. Central Heilongjiang province and the Liaodong peninsula were the main areas where precipitation decreased markedly, ranging from 20mm/10a to 40mm/10a. Most areas located in parts of eastern Heilongjiang as well as central and southern Jilin province were regions where precipitation decreased markedly, from 6mm/10a to 10 mm/10a in autumn. Hiemal precipitation increased from 1mm/10a to 3 mm/10a in most of Heilongjiang province and Jilin province, while decreasing in southern and part of western Liaoning province, from 1mm/10a to 2 mm/10a.