基于劳动力要素流动的人民币与东盟货币合作研究

Study on RMB and ASEAN Currency Cooperation Based on the Flow of Workforce Elements

随着中国-东盟自由贸易框架协议的签订,建立自由贸易区的各项工作陆续启动,这个拥有17亿消费者,1.7万亿美元经济总量和1.23万亿美元贸易总额的经济区将为区域经济和金融合作奠定坚实的基础。中国与东盟经贸合作的开展和经济发展的深化必然要求金融领域内的交流与合作的深化,这也需要人民币区域化的进程进一步加快。中国需要在东盟货币合作中积极推进人民币区域化,这既符合整个东盟货币合作的长远利益,也符合中国的利益。这篇文章首先对最优货币区理论、人民币区域化的相关研究和人民币区域化的现状进行综述,然后借鉴国外最优货币区的实证研究方法,从劳动力要素流动的角度对中国-东盟区域的货币合作进行了实证分析,以对人民币未来的发展路径及人民币区域化的研究提供一种可行的实施方案。

As China- ASEAN free trade framework agreement has been signed, the establishment of a free trade zone with 1.7 billion consumers, 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars total economic output and 1.23 trillion U.S. dollars of total trade voltune has started. The economic trade zone will lay a solid foundation for the region＇s economic zone and financial cooperation. China and ASEAN economic and trade cooperation inevitably requires the exchange and cooperation in the field of finance, and also requires RMB to accelerate the process of regionalization. China needs the cooperation in ASEAN currencies in promoting the regionalization of RMB, which is in line with the longterm interests of entire ASEAN currency cooperation, but also conforms to the interests of China. The paper generalizes optimal currency theory, researches of RMB regionalization and the present state of RMB regionalization and analyses the cooperation of RMB and ASEAN currency from the flow of workforce elements by using the empirical research methods of foreign optimal currencies so as to provide a practical implementation program for the future development of RMB and RMB regionalization.