货币政策与城乡居民消费:攀比效应渠道

Monetary Policy and the Difference of Household's Consumption in Urban and Rural Areas Based on Jealousy Channel

本文基于封闭条件下一般均衡分析框架,从理论与实证两个角度分析了攀比效应条件下货币政策对居民消费的影响。通过理论模型研究发现,假定存在消费的外部性,如果居民过度攀比,货币政策的福利效应取决于消费的外部性与垄断扭曲的相对力量。为检验这一结论在我国这样一个大国内部是否适用,本文利用VAR模型和IRF进行检验,并证实我国货币政策对城乡居民消费产生了差异性影响,货币政策对农村居民消费产生的累积效应呈放大趋势,对城镇居民消费产生的累积效应在长期中则趋于稳定。最后本文提出我国实施积极的货币政策对城乡居民消费进行干预的建议。

The paper analyzes the implications of jealousy for the welfare effects of monetary policy from the theoretical and positive aspects. If households are ＂two jealous＂, a rise in the money supply reduces welfare by increasing consumption that is already inefficiently high. Therefore, the welfare effects of monetary policy depend on the relative strength of the consumption externality and the monopolistic distortion. By adopting VAR model and IRF, the effects of monetary policy on the rural and urban household＇s consumption are verified. This conclusion opens the path for a beneficial monetary policy intervention.