大连市水基系统健康多目标模糊评价

Multi-objective fuzzy assessment of health of Dalian water-based system

阐述了城市水基系统的内涵．系统的健康应包括整体稳定、与依附其上的社会经济系统和生态系统和谐、保持健康的演进状态三方面内容，用稳定态、和谐度、演进率共同来表征．采用基于相对隶属度的模糊识别模型对大连市水基系统2001-2004年的健康状况进行了评价，结果表明：系统2001年和2003年处于健康状态，2002年处于不健康状态，2004年处于很健康状态，年际间有一定波动，其原因主要是在水文周期的影响下本地地表水和地下水的开发利用率过高．

The connotation of urban water-based system is expounded. Based on the concept of sustainable utilization of water resources, the health of urban water-based system consists of three parts： the inner stability, the concordance with social-economy system and ecological system, and the healthy evolvement trend. Accordingly, the attribute of Stability, concordance and the rate of evolvement are applied to characterize the system. By means of fuzzy pattern recognition model, the health evaluation of Dalian water-based system from 2001 to 2004 is studied and the following results are obtained： The system was healthy in 2001 and 2003, and unhealthy in 2002, and very healthy in 2004. The key limit factor of the sustainable utilization of Dalian water resources is the excessive development of local surface water and groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle.