摘要
利用国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所能源环境综合政策评价模型(IPAC模型),对中国未来中长期的能源需求与CO2排放情景进行了分析,对该情景的主要参数和结果进行了介绍,并对模型中的政策评价进行了介绍。同时报告了实现减排所需的技术。结果显示:未来中国经济将快速增长,能源需求和相应的CO2排放也将明显快速增加,与2005年相比,2030年能源需求可能增加1.4倍,2050年可能增加1.9倍。但中国也有较大的机会在2020年之后将能源需求量的增加幅度明显减小,将CO2排放控制住,使之不再出现明显增长,甚至有可能在2030年之后下降。
Mid and long-term energy demand and greenhouse gas （GHG） emission scenarios in China were analyzed using the IPAC model. The main parameters and results for the scenarios are introduced, and policy options assessed in the model are also presented in this paper. At the same time, the emission mitigation technologies are reported. With the rapid development of economy in the future, energy demand and CO2 emission in China will also increase quickly. Compared with 2005, energy demand may increase by 1.4 times in 2030 and by 1.9 times in 2050. However, we do see ample opportunities for China to make the emission stable after 2020 without large increase, and even begin to decrease after 2030.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
2008年第5期296-302,共7页
Climate Change Research
关键词
排放情景
能源
气候变化
模型
emission scenarios
energy
climate change
model
