我国经济的滞胀预期——国际收支角度的分析

Stagflation Expectation in Chinese Economy——from the Perspective of Balance of Payment

导致经济滞胀的原因包括内因、外因多个方面。本文旨在从国际收支的角度来分析我国当前经济的增长态势和物价水平,指出随着我国经济逐渐融入世界经济,与国际市场的一体化程度提高,在美国次贷危机以及我国长期"双顺差"等因素的影响下,我国的经济运行已显露出一些"滞胀"迹象,并且存在着较强的滞胀预期。

There are numerous causes of stagflation. This paper makes an inquiry into the recent economic growth and price level of Chinese economy from the perspective of balance of payment, and points out that during the gradual incorporation and the deepening integration of Chinese economy into world economy, there exists strong stagflation expectation in Chinese economy, with the US＇s sub-prime mortgage crisis and the ＂double surplus＂ of Chinese balance of payment being the main curses.