产品内分工与贸易下的汇率与国际收支关系研究——对马歇尔-勒纳条件适用性的分析与发展

Research on the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and the Trade Surplus under the Background of Inter-product Division and Trade——Analysis and Development of the Application of Marshall-Lerner Condition

人民币持续升值的同时中美贸易顺差却未下降,这对关于汇率变动与国际收支关系的传统马歇尔-勒纳条件理论提出了挑战。本文在文献综述的基础上,从产品内分工和贸易的视角进行研究。通过构建数理模型对汇率与国际收支的关系进行分析,并在一般均衡框架下设定了检验方程,利用中美相关数据分行业实证分析,指出,在产品内分工和贸易存在的情况下,马歇尔-勒纳条件的适用性发生了变化,两国间国际收支对汇率变化的敏感性下降;同时,由于不同行业的产品内分工和贸易发展程度不同,各行业的国际收支对汇率变动的敏感性下降程度也不一样,这对我国制定进出口贸易政策具有一定的指导意义。

Together with the RMB appreciates continuously, the trade surplus between China U.S.A is still becoming larger, which challenges the traditional international finance th.eory. On basis of this, this paper studies the problem trade. The paper establishes the comparative from the perspective of the intra-product division static model to analyze the relationship between and the and exchange rate and trade balance, and gives an example and regression equation to analyze empirically by using of the related data of China-U.S.A in 2004-2006.The conclusion is that the application of Marshall-Lerner condition will change and it should be modified, and the sensitivity of the trade balance to the fluctuation of exchange rate will decline. At the same time, because the degree of intra-production division and trade is different in various industry, the degree of sensitivity decline for the trade balance to the fluctuation of the exchange rate is different, which has some policy implication for our country.