基于有界检验方法的外商投资与我国就业效应的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between China's Employment and FDI:Based on Bounds Test

采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)和Pesaran等有界检验(boundtest)方法,对我国外商直接投资(FDI)与就业的长、短期关系进行了协整估计。结果表明,从长期来看,FDI对就业具有一定的负面作用,但在短期内,对就业具有比较明显的扩大作用。从就业的角度看,针对FDI要采取更加审慎的政策,充分考虑其动态影响,趋利避害。

This paper estimates the long-run and short-run relation between China＇s employment and FDI by means of autoregressive distributed lag model and bounds test proposed by Pesaran and Shin and some others in 2001.The result is that FDI has a negative effect on employment in the long run, but has an positive effect in the short run. It also provides some policy implications based on the above results.