摘要
介绍了利用灰色理论预测天然气消费量的模型,包括GM(1,1)模型和动态等维灰数递补灰色预测模型,对模型进行了求解,介绍了模型精度的检验方法,并用实例加以验证,同时与实际消费量进行了对比。计算结果表明:此方法预测天然气消费量既简单又准确,有较好的适应性和较高的精度,对天然气输配管网的优化运行和统一调度管理具有重要的参考意义。
It introduces the model of grey theory to predict natural gas consumption, including GM （ 1,1 ） and the dynamic equal-dimensional grey-number progressive complement grey prediction model. It also introduces the method for verifying the accuracy of the model, gives an example to validate the model and contrasts the actual consumption meanwhile. The result indicates that the method predicting natural gas consumption is simple and accurate, that the model has good adaptability and accuracy, and that the method is important to optimize the operation and united dispatch management of the transmission and distribution pepeline network.
出处
《管道技术与设备》
CAS
2008年第5期3-5,共3页
Pipeline Technique and Equipment
关键词
灰色模型
预测
天然气消费量
灰色理论
模型检验
grey model
predict
natural gas consumption
grey theory
model verification
