摘要
以灰色理论的标准GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫TPM理论为基础,提出了基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。利用灰色马尔可夫理论预测腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括:最大允许腐蚀深度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测。并基于该方法,采用VB系统开发了实用软件,简便可靠。该方法可以在腐蚀速率波动比较大的情况下预测油气管道的剩余寿命,为油气管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。
Based on the standard grey model GM （ 1,1 ） of grey theory and Markov TPM theory, a method to forecast the remaining life of corrosive oil and gas pipelines based on Grey-Markov theory is proposed. The step of this method includes calculating the maximum corrosive depth ,forecasting the corrosion rate and the remaining life of the corrosive pipelines. Finally, an useful and reliable software based on this method is developed in VB system. With this method, the remaining life of corrosive oil and gas pipelines can be forecasted when the cession rate fluctuation is relatively big,thereby providing a scientific basis for the prediction of the remaining life of the pipelines.
出处
《管道技术与设备》
CAS
2008年第5期43-45,共3页
Pipeline Technique and Equipment
关键词
油气管道
腐蚀
剩余寿命
灰色理论
马尔可夫理论
oil and gas pipelines
corrosion
remaining life
Grey theory
Markov theory
