基于联立方程模型的货物周转量与GDP的计量关系分析

The Measurement and Analysis of the Relationship Between Cargo Turnover Quantity and GDP Based on the Simultaneous Equations Model

通过建立联立方程模型,对货物周转量与国内生产总值之间的关系进行定量研究,用Eviews3.1软件对模型采用二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行参数估计,并进行统计意义检验和历史模拟及事后预测,得出模型符合经济意义,可用于货物周转量的预测。

Through the establishment of the simultaneous equations model, do quantitative research on relationshiP between the goods turnover and the gross domestic product, using the Eviews3.1 Software and two-stage least squares （2SLS） give out the model parameter estimates, and do the statistical significance test and historical simulation and after forecast, found that the model meet the economic significance, and can be used for cargo turnover forecast.