粮食安全风险动态预警模型的构建

Construction on Dynamic Warning Model of Grain Safety and Risk

我国实行粮食市场化改革后,粮食生产、流通、消费、贸易等都发生了新的变化,这些变化使我国的粮食安全面临着许多新问题。通过分析发现粮食安全主要风险表征指标——供需失调度指数呈现出模糊性和随机性,将度量系统中状态不确定性的熵概念引入马尔科夫链方法中,采用粮食安全主要风险表征指标——供需失调度指数,构建一种基于熵权马尔科夫链的粮食安全风险预警模型,可实现对粮食安全风险状态的动态预警,并输出预警结果,从而为食品安全管理部门提供决策辅助。

After the market-oriented reform of grain in China, the production, circulation, consumption and trade of grain have changed greatly, which brought many new problems for China＇ grain safety. Through analysis, we find out that the main risk characteristic index of grain safety-index of supply-demand imbalance-appears vague and random. By introducing uncertain entropy concept in metrics system to Markov Chain and applying the supply-demand imbalance to construct a risk warning model of grain safety based on Markov Chain, we can realize dynamic risk warning to grain safety, output warning result, and provide decision aiding for administrative department of grain safety.