我国房地产价格变动与物价总水平变动的关系

A Test on Relationship Between Real Estate Market Price and Overall Price Level in China

选取1998—2006年我国房地产价格指数、消费价格指数与生产资料价格指数等经济指标,利用计量经济学中的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验方法分析了房地产价格变动与物价总水平变动的关系.实证表明,房地产价格变化与物价总水平存在一定的长期关系,但这种关系是单向的,即房地产价格变动是物价总水平变动的Granger原因,而物价总水平的变动不是房地产价格变动的Granger原因,这说明了我国房地产背离了成本定价规律.

This paper employs the data of the real estate market price index,CPI and PPI,and take the measurement of co-integration test and causality test to examine the relationship between the real estate market price and overall Price level from 1998 to 2007 in china.It discovers that there is a long-term equilibrium between real estate market price and overall Price level in china,But this kind of relationship is unidirectional.It is real estate market price is a Granger reason to overall Price level,but overall Price level is not Granger reason to real estate market price.It shows that real estate has departed from the cost fixed price rule.