长三角集装箱港口体系的偏移增长与演化模式

The Total Shift and Evolution of the Yangze River Delta Container Port System

通过分享—偏移(share—shift analysis)模型对近17年长三角集装箱港口体系的偏移增长状况的研究显示:①上海港在1994—1998年间为正偏移增长港,而在其他两个时段均为负偏移增长港。②宁波港始终为正偏移增长港,且偏移增长量一直很大。③沿海港群和内河港群间的偏移增长状况较为复杂,在总体上,沿海港群优势不断凸显,而内河港群则相反。④在不同等级港口间的偏移增长中,中型集装箱港口始终居于劣势地位,大型集装箱港口近13年来优势明显,小型集装箱港口始终居于相对优势地位。⑤长三角集装箱港口体系的发展可初步划为初步发育阶段、枢纽中心港初步形成阶段和大型深水直挂港加速成长三个阶段,每一阶段的发展都表现出明显的阶段性特征和作用机制。上述状况的形成是区域经济发展、国家政策调控、港口资源条件差异、区域通达条件以及集装箱装卸运价等多种因素长期综合作用的结果。

It is interesting to examine the validity of the Hayuth model in the context of the Yangtze River Delta, especially when considering the differences between the coastal container port ranges and rivers container port ranges or different port categories. In this paper, a distinction between small ports （average container traffic for the period 1990-2006 of less than 100000TEU）, medium-sized ports （between 100000 and 400000TEU） and large container ports （at least 400000TEU）. Then, share-shift analysis models are used to measure the total shift and the evolution of the Yangtze River Delta container port system from 1990 to 2006. By calculating the concerned statistics, the author holds that there are four obvious features： （1） From 1994 to 1998, Shanghai was one of the major winners in terms of the total shift, but in the other periods, it lost some TEU. （2）Ningbo port has been the major winner in terms of the total shift since 1990 and shows the best performances in the period of 1990-1994 and 1998-2006. （3）In the mass, the coastal container port range is superiorior, along rivers container port range is inferior. The net volume of containers shifted between the respective ranges reached an expectionally high level in the third period. In this period the coastal container port range won a potential growth of approximately 607046 TEU to ports situated in the other ranges. （4）In competition, large container port ranges have won much TEU since 1994;middle container port ranges lost throughout some TEU （from a positive total shift of 22109TEU in the first period to a negative shift in the last）; small container port ranges have won much TEU since 1990. A systematic analysis has been carried out on the formation of the total shift change. Finally, this paper holds that there are three development stages for this container port system： initial container port development, hub or load center container port and large deep-sea direct container port.