中国货币政策规则分析——基于泰勒规则和麦克勒姆规则比较的视角

On China's Monetary Policy Rule——Comparative Analysis of McCallum Rule and Taylor Rule

在深入回顾和分析货币政策规则理论与模型的基础上,利用中国数据对泰勒规则、修正的泰勒规则、麦克勒姆规则、修正的麦克勒姆规则进行了检验。检验结果表明中国货币政策对物价的反应比较大,两种泰勒规则要比两种麦克勒姆规则更适合作为中国货币政策的操作指南。伴随着中国利率市场化改革步伐的加快,泰勒规则将能更好地刻画和描述中国的货币政策状态,为中国货币政策的制定与执行提供指南作用。

With the deepening of market - oriented economic reforms, China＇s monetary policy plays an increasingly important role in the world. The objective of this paper is to evaluate China＇s monetary policy performance using method of monetary policy rules （ monetary policy reaction function） over 1994-2006. It compares four monetary policy rules Taylor rule, McCallum rule, Modified Taylor rule and Modified McCallum rule and conducts the empirical study of these four models with Chinese data. The finding is that Taylor rules fit better to the actual in- strument variable than McCallum rules and can serve as the implementation guidelines for China＇s monetary policy.