六安市城市生活垃圾预测研究

Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Output in Lu'an City

准确预测生活垃圾产量可以为垃圾管理工作提供定量依据。利用多项式拟和、多元线性回归和灰色GM（1，1）模型相结合的方法对2007-2013年六安市城市生活垃圾年产量进行了预测。结果显示：预测时段内生活垃圾年增长率5％～6％，2013年将达到17．9万吨。

The accurate prediction of municipal solid waste （MSW） output provids quantificational foundation for MSW management. The methods of polynomial imitation, multivariate regression analysis and greymodel GM（1,1） were used to predict MSW output in Lu＇an from 2007 to 2013 . The results show that the MSW output will be increased by the rate 5%-6% annually from 2007 to 2013 and in 2013 the output will reach 0. 179 million tons.