金融危机预警理论述评

Commentary on Early-Warning Theory of Financial Crisis

一场金融危机的爆发,往往会造成国民经济的严重衰退,同时给政府带来巨额的预算支出,甚至可能引起政局的动荡,其代价之惨重无须赘述。金融危机总是由某种经济状态先行失衡而引发的,如何避免金融危机,立足点应该是对先行爆发的金融危机进行预警。纵观现有的金融危机预警理论和预警模型,尚未形成统一完整的理论体系。这篇文章对金融危机预警理论进行了全方位的梳理,以期对相关研究作一定程度上的理论参考,力求为中国的金融理论建设做出一点贡献。

With the outburst of the financial crisis, it will cause the serious decline of national economy, increase the terrible financial pressure of the government, at the same time, even may result in the bankruptcy of the government, whose consequence is very fearful. The financial crisis always goes with a certain economic state. The foothold should be how to give early-warning to the advance outburst financial crisis. Therefore, it is very important to take precautions against the financial crisis effectively Making a general view of the early-warning theory of financial crisis in the past, we can come to the conclusion that the early-warning theory of the financial crisis has not formed the unified system. This paper makes every effort to make contribution to the financial theory construction of China.