外来医学媒介生物(蝇类)输入风险评估体系研究

Research on the assessment system for the input risk of the outside medical organism vector

目的采用多指标综合评估模式研究外来医学媒介生物(蝇类)的输入风险。方法采用专家调研法确定评估指标并建立评估指标体系;明确各风险指标之间的相互关系并建立一致化和无量纲化后的指标评判标准;选择并确定合适的风险分析数学模型,对外来医学媒介生物蝇类的输入风险进行评估。结果建立了外来医学媒介生物(蝇类)输入风险评估体系,即风险评估体系由6个一级指标及其下属的26个二级指标组成。结论明确了各风险指标之间的相互关系后通过多指标综合分析方法建立了风险评估模型,通过模型可计算出任意一种已鉴定出来的外来蝇类的输入风险值。

Objective To reseaeh the input risk of the outside medical organism vector（fllies） by the comprehensive multi-indices assessment model. Methods Expert survey was carried out to ensure assessment indices and to establish the assessment system; the mutual relations between every risk indices was defined and a uniform, non-dimensional assessment standard was built; the appropriate mathematical model for risk analysis was chosen and determined in order to assess the input risk of the outside organism vector. Results We established an assessment system for the input risk of the outside medical organism vector（flies） which consisted of six main indices and twenty-six secondarv indices. Conclusion It makes the mutual relations of every, risk indices clear and establishes risk assessment model by the method of the comprehensive multi - indices analysis which can calculate the input risk of any confirmed outside flies.