中国省级层面人口教育视窗聚类分析

An Cluster-Analysis of "Demographic Window of Education" at China's Province Level

文章将某一人口由于数量增长转变、年龄结构转变导致的学龄人口入学率和预期受教育年数提高,促进人力资源质量提高的机遇称之为"人口教育机会视窗"或"人口教育红利"。研究表明,无论何种生育政策,在近一二十年内中国人口教育视窗都将开启。迁移将降低迁入省份预期受教育年数,提高迁出省份预期受教育年数,一段时间内有助于缩小省际教育差别。应针对不同类型省份人口教育视窗变动趋势、开启闭合的不同特征,分别采取不同措施,因地制宜地利用人口教育视窗开启的机遇,促使人力资源质量提高,促进社会经济发展方式的转变。

This paper refers 'demographic window of education' or 'educational bonus caused by demography' to the increase of school-age population's enrollment rate and expected schooling years.The research shows that the demographic window on education will open up in China in the next one or two decades at any fertility policy environment.Migration will reduce the average schooling year in the receiving provinces and increase it in the sending provinces,which may narrow the gap of education among the provinces.The authors suggest that various measures should be taken according to provincial difference in terms of the trend and characteristics of the demographic window on education,in order to improve the quality of human resources and facilitate the transformation of the social and economic development.