对中国总供给函数的再检验

Retest of the Aggregate Supply Function of China

通过对中国的总供给函数所作的形式化理论论证和利用新数据所作的计量检验,得出的研究结论是:中国的经济增长率与通货膨胀的关系大致合乎"附加预期的菲利普斯曲线"的预言;上一年与本年度的通货膨胀率都为零时,中国经济的"自然增长率"大约为9%;在这个基础上,中国的通货膨胀率与当年的经济增长率有同向变动的关系;多数计量检验显示,上一年较高的通货膨胀率会降低本年度的经济增长。

A very important conclusion is drawn through formal theoretical demonstration on China＇ s aggregate supply function recently and econometric test by using new data. The conclusion shows：the relationship between the economic growth rate and the inflation of China is approximately comply with the prophesy of the＂ Expectations - augmented Phillips Curve＂ ;when the inflation rates of this year and last year are zero, the＂ natural growth rate＂of China＇ s economy is about 9% ;based on this, the inflation rate of China and the economic growth rate of the year change towards the same direction;the majority of the econometric tests show that a comparatively high inflation last year may decrease the economic growth of the year.