房价房租利率相互关系实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationships among House Price,House Rent and the Interest Rate

依据房地产资本属性，选取1999～2005年中国35个城市的有关资料进行面板数据分析，建立房价房租利率模型，估算出租金利率比对房价影响的滞后时间，同时研究了不同经济发展水平的城市其房价对租金利率的敏感度，分析了国家利率调整政策对各类城市未来房价的影响，特别提出利率的提高将在4年后对城市房价起到推动作用，尤其对第二类城市。此研究也可尝试作为未来房价走势的预测方法。

Based on the capital attributes of real estate, relative references of 35 cities from 1999 to 2005 are chose to make a panel data analysis,and a model of house price,house rent and the interest rate is built. The authors estimate the lag time of the influence of rent and interest rate ratio to house price, and the sensitivity of house price to rent and interest rate in cities with different economic development levels is studied. Besides, the authors analyzed the influence of national interest rate adjustment policy on the house price in the future, and propose that the increase of interest rate will push house price in cities after 4 years＇ time. The study can be recognized as a prediction method of future house price tendency.