海温与鲁西南旱涝分析及应用

Analysis and Application of Sea Surface Temperature and Drought and Flood in Southwest Shandong Province

干旱是威胁鲁西南地区工农业生产的主要自然灾害之一，对1957～2004年共48年年降水量序列进行分析，揭示鲁西南年季降水发生气候突变这一事实；用春、夏、秋、冬季降水量序列分别对前12个月的海温场进行相关普查，得出了一批优势相关区。分析结果表明，相关区具有沿洋流传播的特征，多数相关区都叠加在洋流上；从各个优势相关区选取预报因子，用最优子集方法建立各月各季降水预报方程。经过2年的试用，收到了较好的预报效果。

Drought is one of the important natural disasters which threatens the produce of agriculture in southwest Shandong Province. Annual precipitation series from 1957 to 2004 were analyzed. Weather saltation of precipitation in southwest Shandong Province was revealed. The correlative investigation of sea temperature of former twelve months was carried out by the precipitation sequence which was conducted from spring to winter. A passel of preponderant correlation areas were educed. Analysis result showed that the correlative area had the characteristics of spreading along the sea, most correlative areas were imposed to the sea. Forecast factors in each dominant correlation region were selected. The optimal subset was used to establish precipitation forecast equation in every month and season. Through two years＇ test, better forecast effect was obtained.