美中贸易逆差影响因素的实证分析

The Influencing Factors of Sino-American Trade Deficits: Empirical Study

随着中美双边贸易额的增大,美中贸易逆差已成为双边贸易摩擦的焦点之一。由于存在进出口计价差异、香港转口及转口增值因素,因此,中美双方公布的贸易逆差额都是不准确的。本文在对1989—2005年美方公布的美中贸易逆差进行调整的基础上,利用协整分析的方法,就美国对华投资,东亚国家(亚洲四小龙)对华产业转移、人民币汇率等因素对美中贸易逆差的影响进行实证分析,并得出一些结论:美国对华直接投资是影响美中贸易逆差的最主要因素,亚洲四小龙国家的产业转移与美中贸易逆差额密切相关,人民币汇率对美中贸易逆差额的影响有限。

With the increase of bilateral trade volume, the trade deficit between the USA and China has become one of the trade frictions. In view of the different basis to measure exports and imports, re - exports via Hong Kong and re - export markups, the official estimates of the Sino - American trade balances by both countries are incorrect. Based on adjusting to the American official estimates of trade deficit from 1989 to 2005, it makes empirical study on the influence of the foreign direct investment, and East Asian countries industry transferring to China, and the exchange rate on Sino -American trade deficit through Co -integration, and then it draws an important conclusion. American＇ s investment to China is the most important factor of influencing Sino - US trade deficits, and East Asian countries＇ industry transferring to China is related to the Sino - American trade deficits, the influence of Renminbi exchange rate to Sino - American trade deficits is limited.