竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的应用

The Application of Analysis Method of Competitive Hypothesis in the Early Intelligence Warning of Massive Disturbance

目前，边防部门对于群体性事件预警情报的分析缺乏科学系统的工作流程和分析思路，受思维定势、先入为主等主观因素的影响较为严重。随着科学技术的不断发展，群体性事件预警情报的来源不断扩展，数量不断攀升，如何进行准确的情报分析，成为边防部门面临的一个亟待解决的问题。分析了竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的可行性和实际应用，对预警情报的分析工作有一定的借鉴价值。

Nowadays, the border control forces are lack of scientific and train of thinking, which is terribly influenced by the thinking mode and systematic working procedure and analytical the first impression of the intelligence agents themselves. With the development of the science and technology, the source of the massive disturbance intelligence is on increase and it becomes an urgent problem for the border control forces to extract useful intelligence from them. This paper analyses the feasibility and the actual procedure of analysis method of competitive hypothesis, which will definitely show some practical value on the analysis of the warning intelligence.