中国可持续增长的机制：证据、理论和政策

On the Mechanism of Sustainable Growth:Evidence,Theory and Policy

本报告在企业生产函数中引入政府支持系数,该系数是通过一个政府福利模型而得。在突破贫困陷阱阶段,政府与企业目标高度一致,政府集中一切资源支持企业发展,政府支持系数大,企业享受了低税、低资源价格等有利因素;在进入中等收入阶段,随着城市化快速提高,政府转向福利支出目标,福利刚性不断加大,政企目标冲突,政府支持系数下降甚至出现惩罚,政企在新的发展阶段都面临转型,转型失败可能会落入"中等收入陷阱"。确定中国未来的新增长机制,政府转型是关键,限制政府利益刚性,明确政府福利支出与企业发展能力相匹配,而不是靠债务融资推动福利和增长,更多地让市场发挥激励创新和优化配置资源的功能,以促进经济的可持续增长。

China＇ s development environment has changed as Chinese economy approaches to the group of middle-income countries. How to achieve the sustainable growth in the new environment is the main theme of our paper. According to China＇s reality, this paper introduces the government support coefficient in the enterprise＇ s production function, which can be attained by the maximization of government welfare function. Our analysis shows that when government has enough resources to maintain its spending, the government support coefficient is relatively large and the enterprise＇s investment will be encouraged by low tax, low resource prices, subsidies and etc. While the government income is not large enough to realize the social welfare target, the government coefficient will change and the enterprise can not enjoy the government support and even will be punished by high tax. Therefore, the key for new mechanism of China＇s sustainable growth is to match government spending to its fiscal potential, and encourage enterprise＇s innovation to maintain economic vitality.