中国货币政策的二元传导机制——“两中介目标,两调控对象”模式研究

The Binary Transmission Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy——A Research on the "Two Intermediaries,Two Targets" Model

本文利用1998年1月到2006年6月的经济金融月度数据,主要运用VAR模型对中国货币政策的中介目标、传导渠道进行实证检验和理论分析,发现:(1)货币供应量M2是货币政策的重要指标,它对经济变量的解释(预测)能力远高于其他货币变量;(2)货币供应量M2对工业增加值和CPI作出系统性的反应,且M2新息是由央行决定的,表明货币供应量M2是货币政策中介目标;(3)我国基本不存在货币传导渠道,主要的传导渠道是银行贷款,信贷规模是事实上的中介目标,直接调控经济,并引导货币供应量的变化,因而,我国的货币政策中介目标实际上是两个——信贷规模和货币供应量M2,这种调控模式在1998年前后没有发生根本性的改变;(4)两个中介目标调控不同的领域:信贷规模主要针对实体经济,货币供应量主要针对金融市场,这是我国央行的一种现实选择,央行也较为成功地实现了两者之间的一致和协调。上述结论对于货币政策实践是有意义的,表明我们更应关注信贷规模指标并以此为核心来调控经济。当然,这种货币传导模式存在缺陷,只是阶段性地起作用。从未来的发展模式来看,要采用包含更多信息的利率作为政策中介,其前提条件是利率和汇率的市场化改革。

The research, using VAR model and economic and financial data starting from Jan. 1998 and expiring by Jun. 2006, by econometric methods and theoretical analysis, examines the intermediate target and transmission channel of China＇ s monetary policy. The results are as followings ： （ 1 ） monetary stock M2 is a good indicator of China＇ s monetary policy, which is far and away the best predictive variable among the five considered; （2） M2 is China＇ s monetary intermediate target because M2 reacts systematically to the industrial-added value and CPI and M2 innovation is made by central bank; （3）credit volume is a key channel of the monetary transmission mechanism, and almost no money channel. Credit is a de facto intermediate target, which tune macroeconomy and induce the changes of M2 as well, so there are two intermediate targets-credit and M2 , which are fundamentally the same as the situation before 1998 ; （4）the two intermediate targets function in different fields-credit is for real economy and M2 for financial market, which is a realistic choice and the central bank has successfully coordinated them very well. These conclusions are meaningful for the practices of China＇ s monetary policy, which indicate that we should pay more attention to the credit volume and take it as the core variable to tune macroeconomy. Of course this monetary transmission model is only effective temporarily for there are many limitations in it. In the future, it is necessary to adopt interest rate , which is more informative, as the intermediate target, which takes the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate as the preconditions.