民国时期的水灾与社会风险——以1931年江淮大水为例

The Relations between Flood and Social Risks Based on the 1931 Changjiang and Huai River Flood during the Republic of China

1931年江淮大水灾以其发灾快、历时长、灾域广、损失重、影响远等特点而难忘于人们的记忆,这场由洪水而带来的灾荒对灾区内外的社会安全造成了严重威胁和冲击,从灾民流移、城市难民综合症、兵灾匪患、疾疫传播这几个角度来进行考察,结果发现,20世纪20、30年代的时局使得灾荒这样一种本来单一的突发事件,却因与时代环境纠葛在一起而变得错综复杂,时局弱化防灾与抗灾能力,天灾加剧社会动荡,秩序失控诱发更大的灾难,最终形成一条天灾人祸恶性循环的风险链。

The Changjiang and Huai River flood in 1931 was memorable in several aspects. It broke out swiftly and violently, characterized by long duration, large range, far-reaching influence, etc. Finally, the famine caused by the flood greatly threatened social security both in and out of disaster area. This article mainly reviews the impact of the flood on the migration of victims, refugees swarming into crowded cities, war and banditry, and epidemic diseases. From these points of view we conclude that a single flood combined with the current political situation became more anfractuous. It followed such a natural and man-made disaster vicious circle, that the situation weakened the defending ability against disaster, and visitation of Providence leads to turbulence of society, and the turbulence leads to more risks.