基于模糊理论的国际运动会项目风险评价与风险管理研究

Research on Project Risk Valuation and Management for the International Games Based on Fuzzy Theory

任何项目都包含风险,国际运动会也不例外,其中的风险是错综复杂的。弄清国际运动会的风险源,对国际运动会的科学风险评价和会议的圆满成功具有重要的现实意义和科学价值。鉴于国际运动会风险源具有多因素、多层次、非线性的特点,提出了利用模糊数学理论解决风险评价的思路。用模糊数学方法解决国际运动会风险评价问题,就是用数学方法将运动会这一自身带有模糊性的系统数量化。通过对大量世界级运动会的调查和数据分析,构建起了国际运动会风险评价的指标因素体系。运用层次分析法确定了各评价指标因素的相对权重,并借助模糊数学理论建立起国际运动会风险评价数学模型,给出了模拟评价实例与评价过程,提出了国际运动会风险管理策略。

The risk is present in all projects, as international games. The risk of international games is complex. To get to the cause of risk of international games has important scientific significance for risk valuation and success of international games. The cause of risk of international games has many characteristics （such as many factors, many levels, un-linear, and etc）. In view of the above-mentioned facts, an idea to make risk valuation for international games by fuzzy theory has been put forward. To resolve the risk valuation issue of international games by fuzzy theory is exactly quantitative analysis for the fuzzy system such as international games by mathematical method. The index factor system of risk valuation of international games has been established, based on analysis and investigation of many international games. The relative quotient of every index factor was determined by AHP （The Analytic Hierarchy Process） Method. The Fuzzy Mathematics model of risk valuation of international games has been founded. It gives an simulated valuation example and introduces the simulated valuation process. The tactics of risk management of international games has been put forward.