甘肃年度地震危险区划定的R值评分研究

Review of Seismic Risk Areas Delineation in Gansu on the Basis of R-value Evaluation

年度地震危险区是一个比较特殊的评价对象。作者在前人研究的基础上对R值评分公式做了适当的改进,将原有方法的用地震个数求报准率,改为用地震危险区面积求取报准率,在不改变公式物理意义的前提下,使其更适合于对年度地震危险区这个特殊对象做出科学评价。改进后的公式排除了数学上不成立的情况,不鼓励虚测,不鼓励漏测。对甘肃1986-2007年的年度地震危险区和目前甘肃地震预测预报水平做出了科学客观的评价。依据评价结果提出了改进年度地震危险区划定方法的建议。

Prediction for annual seismic risk areas is a special evaluation object. The paper tries to improve the formula of R value on the basis of former researches. Under the condition of not changing the physic meaning of formula, the original method based on the number of earthquakes has been changed to the seismic risk area method in order to seek the exactitude rate of prediction and make it more suitable for scientific evaluation of annual seismic risk areas. The paper makes a simple demonstration of the improved formula. The improved formula excludes the inequality on mathematics that will discourage false declaration and misreporting. A scientific summary is made on the prediction for seismic risk from 1986 to 2007 and the present level of earthquake prediction in Gansu and a proposal for the criterion on determining annual seismic risk area is forwarded with the help of the evaluation result.