聊城市年降水量周期变化分析

Periodic Variation of Annual Precipitation in Liaocheng City

依据近代三百年的历史旱涝灾情资料,以年降水量为年际对比指标,将不同的丰枯年份概化为丰水年、偏丰年、平水年、枯水年四个类型,逐年确定丰枯水等级,得到长系列概化年降水量系列,统计分析本区域降水量年际变化规律,对未来聊城降水量变化趋势进行预测,供制定抗旱防汛决策参考。

Based on the data of historic drought and water-logging disasters in recent 300 years, taking the annual precipitation as index for interannual comparison, this paper generalized the different flow years into four types： high flow year, higher flow year, common flow year, and low flow year. According to this, the rich-low flow grade was defined year by year so as to get long generalized precipitation series and analyze the law of precipitation change in this region in different years for predicting the trend of precipitation change in Liaocheng City.