国家级森林火险等级预报方法研究

Forecasting Methodology of National-level Forest Fire Risk Rating

对国家级森林火险等级的定量化预报方法进行了探讨,即:利用MODIS数据反演获得可燃物状态指数;将通过网络获得的全国气象数据和建立的可燃物类型分布、森林火险区划等基础数据库,在ArcGIS平台上数量化后计算背景综合指数,由这两者计算获得火险指数,以火险指数为国家级森林火险等级预报的量化指标,并利用它进行全国森林火险等级的分级,从而实现了全国森林火险等级从定性描述到定量估测。同时,以近几年我国发生的重特大森林火灾为例,对该方法进行了验证。实验表明:该方法可较好地对国家级森林火险等级进行定量化预报。

The risk level of forest fire depends not only on weather, topography, human activities, socio-economic conditions, but also closely related to the types, growth, moisture content, and quantity of forest fuel on the ground. How to timely acquire information on the dynamics of growth and moisture content of forest fuel and climate in the whole country is critical to national-level forest fire risk forecasting. The development and application of Remote Sensing （RS）, geographic information system （GIS）, databases, Internet, and other modern information technologies has provided an important technical means for macro-regional forest fire risk forecasting. Quantified forecasting of national-level forest fire risk was studied using Fuel State Index （FSI） and Background Composite Index （BCI）. The FSI was estimated using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiaometer （MODIS） data. National meteorological data and other basic data on distribution of fuel types and forest fire risk rating were standardized in ArcGIS p.atform to calculate BCI. The FSI and the BCI were used to calculate the Forest Fire Danger Index （FFDI）, which is regarded as a quantitative indicator for national forest fire risk forecasting and forest fire risk rating, shifting from qualitative description to quantitative estimation. The major forest fires occurred in recent years was taken as examples to validate the above method, and results indicated that the method can be used for quantitative forecasting of national-level forest fire risks.