国际油价冲击与我国的宏观经济稳定

On World Market Oil Price Shock and China's Economic Stability

本文考察了此轮石油等价格上升的特点与成因,主要观点是:1.石油等价格持续大幅上升是对全球经济的冲击;2.其主因是全球经济发展而不是名义货币和金融市场动荡;3.石油价格冲击会引起商品间比价调整,并因资源配置调整的滞后引起供给冲击型价格上升;4.坚定且有信誉的货币政策有助于防止商品与服务价格比价调整,演变为工资上升与通货膨胀加剧的螺旋;5.面对石油冲击,单一的总需求政策是不够的,加快推进更加深入的市场化改革,消除因政府管制、行政垄断和市场竞争不完全引起的价格刚性,保持我国生产率的高增长是应对石油价格冲击的基础。

The Primary commodity prices have risen significantly since 1998, and made the big strike to the world economy. This paper analyzes the character and cause of formation of the oil price boom, and makes a comment on the pertinent papers. The primary conclusion： 1 .The primary commodity price boom is a real shock to the world economy; 2.The primary cause of the oil price boom is not the normal monetary shock and market turbulence, but the world economy development; 3. The oil price shocks will result in the adjustment of price relations, and will increase by the lag of the resource adjustment; 4.Stable and incredible monetary policies will prevent the adjustment of price relations, which will evolve into the alternate increase between the wage and inflation; 5.The single policies are inadequate, and we need advance the market reformi~ eliminate controlled economy and the price rigidity and keep the fast development of the productivity, which are the optimal choices.