一种基于证据理论的机场动态容量预测算法

A prediction algorithm of airport dynamic capacity based on D-S evidence theory

容量受天气、军事活动、人员因素、设备状况等诸多动态因素的影响,对其准确的评估,有利于流量管理的合理有效实施.证据理论处理不确定因素优势明显.本论文把证据理论用于受动态因素影响的机场容量预测,设计并实现了将预测结果的基本可信度分配转换为支持度的方法,方便与初始支持度作比较,使结果更加直观,为流量管理的实施提供决策支持.

The capacity of an airport is influenced by many dynamic factors, such as weather, military activities, staff factors and equipment conditions, etc. Precise valuation of such conditions will benefit to implement flow management effectively and reasonably. The D-S evidence theory has obvious advantages in processing indeterminate factors. This paper applies D-S evidence theory to the forecast of airport capacity which is influenced by the dynamic factors and provides decision support for flow management. At the meantime,it designs the method of transforming the basic probability assignment into the support, in order to compare with the incipient support for easy and get more direct results.