通货膨胀与央行职责

Inflation and Responsibility of the Central Bank

各国中央银行都明确有保持物价稳定的职责,面对来自外在冲击造成的短期通货膨胀,央行无法控制。因此短期内央行应钉住除能源和食品价格之外的核心CPI指数。长期内,在不存在全面供给冲击、市场机制健全条件下,持续通货膨胀一定是一种货币现象,长期央行应该钉住一般物价即CPI。持续通货膨胀是通货膨胀预期造成的,通货膨胀预期是由于央行缺乏稳定通货膨胀的声誉及错误的货币政策造成的。全面供给冲击、市场机制不健全情况下发生的成本推动型通货膨胀需要央行与政府协作解决,这对央行独立性理论提出了挑战。

It is generally acknowledged that the central bank of a country should assume the responsibility of maintaining price stability of the country. But it is beyond the central bank to deal with short-term inflation caused by external shocks. When this happens, the central bank should concentrate on the core CPI index other than the prices of energy and food within a short period of time. So long as there is no comprehensive supply shock and the market mechanism is perfect, inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and the central bank should attend to the general CPI. Sustained inflation is caused by inflation expectations when the central bank is viewed as being unable to deal with inflation with wrong monetary policy-making. It is beyond the central bank to deal with the cost-pushed inflation against a background of overall supply shocks and imperfect market mechanism. The central bank then has to seek collaboration with the government. But this will challenge the theory of central bank independence.