东亚货币合作:基于最优货币区指数的实证研究

The Currency Cooperation in Eastern Asia:the Positive Analysis based on Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Index

本文在修正BE模型的基础上计算了东亚国家之间的最优货币区指数,认为东亚各国的最优货币区指数有减少的趋势,表明东亚货币合作存在可行性;截面数据的最优货币区指数显示在中国大陆、香港、台湾地区、韩国和日本这些次区域内先进行货币合作是较为可行的现实选择;另外与欧洲相比,东亚地区的最优货币区指数较大,表明东亚的货币合作将是一个长期渐进的过程。

Based on the amendment of Bayoumi and Eichengreen model, the author calculates the OCA index among the Eastern Asia countries, it shows that, first, the OCA index among the Eastern Asia countries shows the diminishing tendency over the time; second, the cross-section data of OCA index shows that carrying on currency cooperation firstly in such subregion as China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan is a feasible and realistic choose; third, comparing with that of Europe, the OCA index of the Eastern Asia is bigger which shows that currency cooperation in the Eastern Asia is a gradual process within a long-term.