1999～2007年欧盟对华贸易逆差的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the EU-China Trade Deficit:1999～2007

文章讨论了欧盟对华贸易逆差产生的主要渠道,在此基础上构建VEC模型并进行协整分析以及Granger因果关系检验。研究结果表明,国际产业分工的深入和中国贸易一体化总体水平的上升对欧盟对华贸易赤字具有显著促推作用,人民币实际汇率并非导致贸易逆差上扬的主要因素,而中国国内消费需求扩大有利于双边贸易趋于平衡。

This paper discusses how the EU-China trade deficit generates. Based on the VECM, cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, it finds that the trade deficit has been significantly affected by the development of international industrial specialization and the high level of growth in the integration of trade in China. The RMB actual exchange rate, however, is not the essential cause for the enlargement of trade deficit while the domestic consumer demand has positive effects on the re-balance of bilateral trade.