中国内地与香港贸易关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Trade Relationship between Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong: Based on the Theory of Co-integration and Granger Causality Test

长期以来,香港是中国重要的贸易顺差来源地和重要的转口贸易地,同时,香港对外贸易的发展也离不开内地的支持。两地贸易的相互依存度正在不断上升。香港进口与出口之间具有互动的因果关系。香港的进口带动出口的发展,香港出口的增加,促进了产品价值的实现,可以进口更多更好的产品或投入品,形成良性循环。中国内地进出口的发展处于不平衡状态,特别在改革开放初期,重视出口、忽视进口的现象比较严重,进出口互动发展格局尚未形成。因此,不断调整中国内地进出口产品数量、优化贸易结构,对于中国内地对外贸易的发展具有重要意义。

For a long time, the economic and trade relations between Chinese mainland and Hong Kong are ＂close, inseparable＂. Hong Kong is the important trade surplus source and transit trade place of the mainland, while the development of Hong Kong＇s foreign trade is also inseparable from the mainland＇s support. The interdependence degree of trade between the two places is increasing. There is interactive causality between Hong Kong＇ imports and exports. On the one hand, Hong Kong＇ imports promote the development of its exports, on the other hand, the increase of Hong Kong＇ exports promote the realization of the value of products, so that it can import more and better products and inputs, forming a virtuous circle. The development of imports and exports of the mainland are in a state of imbalance, especially in the initial stage of reform and opening-up, the phenomenon of stressing the exports and neglecting the imports is very serious, the pattern of interactive development of imports and exports hasn＇t yet formed. Therefore, constantly adjusting the number of import and export products and optimizing the trade structure are of great significance for the mainland＇s foreign trade development.