贸易模式、汇率传递与人民币汇率安排

Trade Pattern,Exchange Rate Transfer and RMB Exchange Rate Arrangement

结合中国现行贸易模式的特点,文章从社会福利最大化目标入手,采用了新政治经济学中关于汇率制度战略选择的研究方法,对进一步扩大人民币汇率弹性和汇率升值的影响进行了分析。研究发现,加工贸易和一般贸易对汇率变动的反应弹性差异很大,不同国际贸易模式下的汇率传递系数是不同的。因此如果我国现行对外贸易依然以加工贸易为主,扩大汇率波动幅度在理论上并不会对我国社会福利产生严重影响。研究结果进一步支持加大汇率弹性更有利于丰富货币政策当局的工具选择范围,有助于国内货币政策独立性的保持,也有助于推进出口产业的结构调整和升级,是当前人民币汇率制度改革方向的合理选择。

The main foundation of the statement about the disadvantage of RMB exchange rate appreciation is based upon its negative effect on the export, domestic employment and sustainable economic growth. But this statement neglects the distinction in trade patterns. Based upon present Chinese trade pattern, this paper analyzes the effects of enlarging the RMB exchange rate elasticity by using the method of exchange rate regime choice popular in new political economies from the perspective of social welfare maximization. The research results indicate that exchange rate transfer coefficients in different international trade patterns are different because the reactive elasticity differs in processing trade and ordinary trade. Because China＇ trade is mainly composed of processing trade now, enlarging the exchange rate fluctuation will not have serious effects on social welfare. Furthermore, enlarging the exchange rate fluctuation will enrich the choice of government policy tools. And such an enlargement is also helpful to the independence of domestic monetary policy and promotes the adjustment of industrial structure and upgrade, so it is the reasonable choice of RMB exchange rate regime reformation.