渤海海域海冰严重灾害的灰色预测

Grey prediction of the sea ice in Bohai sea area

根据１９６０年～１９９５年间渤海海域的海冰灾害的实际观测资料，建立了信息ＧＭ（１，１）模型，并在此基础上又分别对ＧＭ（１，１）灰色预测模型提出新的改进型预测模型，并运用改进型的预测模型对渤海海域的海冰严重灾害进行预测，据预测未来可能发生的两次海冰严重灾害时间为２００３年和２０１１年．

According to the data during the period from 1960 to 1995,the paper establishes an original information GM(1,1) model,sets up a new information GM(1,1) on the basis of GM(1,1)and grey prediction and predicts with the new information GM(1,1)the time in which the sea ice may take place in Bohai sea area in future(2003 and 2011).