设计期铁路客运站最高聚集人数预测模型研究

Research on the Forecast Model of Maximum Assembling Passengers at Railway Passenger Stations in Designing Time

铁路客运站最高聚集人数是研究铁路客运站站房能力与规模的核心。本文在分析现有研究成果的基础上对设计期铁路客运站最高聚集人数的预测进行研究。认为将列车密集发车时段同一时刻到达车站候车人数与检票上车人数之差最大值的平均值视为铁路客运站最高聚集人数比较适宜。建立铁路客运站最高聚集人数预测模型,对模型中参数的取值进行讨论,通过算例说明本文模型的应用,并对预测结果进行分析比较。

Maximum assembling of passengers is the core of the design of the railway passenger station capacity and scale. Basing on the existing achievements, this paper studies the forecast of maximum assembling at railway passenger stations in the designing time. It is proper to regard the average of the maximum values of the differences between the passengers arriving in and waiting for trains and the passengers departing after checking of tickets at the same time in the tight train departing time interval as the maximum assembling passengers. This paper builds the forecast model, expounds how to determine the values of the parameters of the model, explains application of the model through computational examples, and compares forecast results.