矿山企业尘肺病灰色残差预测模型研究

Research on Grey Residual Error Model for Predicting Pneumoconiosis in Mine Enterprises

目前尘肺病依然是最严重的职业病,矿山企业尤甚。为准确预测矿山企业尘肺病患病发展趋势,以采取有效措施对其进行预防,从灰色预测的建模原理出发,利用残差模型对矿山企业尘肺病现状及其未来变化趋势进行预测,结果表明修正模型更为稳定,预测精度更好,从而为矿山企业尘肺病防治提供重要的理论依据。

The pneumoconiosis is the most serious occupational disease at present in China, especially in mine enterprises. Therefore, to accurately predict disease development trend of mine enterprises, it was necessary to adopt effective measures to prevent the disease. In accordance with the principle of grey predicting model, the grey residual error model is used to forecast the current situation and development trend of the disease in the mine enterprises. The results show that the modifying model is more stable and the forecasting precision is better. It provides important theoretic bases for prevention and cure of pneumoconiosis of the mine enterprises