经济增长和制度性变革对税收收入影响的分析

The Effect of Economic Growth and Institutional Changes on Tax Revenue

利用1978-2006年的年度数据，建立时序模型考察了税收与经济增长之间的均衡关系，并利用结构突变理论对税收数据的生成过程进行了分析。指出，税收收入与经济增长具有长期均衡关系，但GDP的变动不能显著解释税收收入的短期波动，而制度性因素尤其是税务机关的征管技术变革对税收收入的短期波动具有显著的解释作用。

Based on China＇ s annual data from 1978 to 2006, this paper first studies the correlation between tax and economic growth, and then analyzes the generation process of tax with the theory of structure change. Our findings are as follows. Firstly, there exists a correlation relationship between tax and economic growth, but in the short mn the change of GDP couldn＇ t account for tax＇ s fluctuation. Secondly, institutional changes, especially technology reform of tax collection and administration has significant interpretation function on short-term fluctuation of tax.