基于企业景气状况的财务预测研究——以企业调查数据为样本

The Financial Forecasting Based on the Business Cycle——Evidence from Business Investigation

以权威机构数千家企业调查数据为样本,分析了企业财务指标与企业景气指数之间的相关关系,并构建了基于企业景气指数的财务预测模型。经过分析和对模型的改进及对模型的预测评价,最后得到了7个具有较强预测能力的模型,为财务预测开拓了新的视角。

Based on data sample of thousands of business investigation from authority, we analyze the relationship between the enterprise＇s financial indicators and the business cycle index, and build the financial forecasting model based on the business cycle index. After analysis of the improvement of the model and the evaluation of the model＇s prediction, we obtain seven forecasting models with strong forecasting ability, which open a new perspective for the financial forecasting.